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The direst possible consequences of the climate crisis for the UK have been detailed by researchers, including a blistering 4C jump in temperatures to a 2-metre increase in sea level. A separate possibility envisions a drop of 6C in temperature following the collapse of crucial Atlantic Ocean currents, which would massively disrupt food production and energy needs.

Possible Events, Not Predictions

These impacts, certain ones are linked to climate tipping points, are viewed as low probability but possible. The researchers explained that these models plugged a hole in risk assessment that had left the UK ill-prepared for worst-case results.

"The worst-case scenarios we have detailed should not be seen as certainties, but they are credible," stated the lead researcher who led the research. "The nation has been planning without the frameworks to test against worst-case scenarios. We've now supplied decision-makers what they need to plan for future conditions they pray never occur, but can’t afford to ignore."

A Suite of Harsh Climate Projections

Another collection of worst-case scenarios details the projected severity of harsh climate between now and the end of the century. These suggest that thermometer readings could skyrocket in some months by up to 6C above average, while precipitation could be triple typical amounts.

The chance of the worst-case outcomes happening remains uncertain due to unknown factors about what steps will be taken to address global heating and how the planet's climate will behave. This analysis was likened to national security risk assessments or resilience checks for the banking sector.

Major Scenario Elements

• Severe Heating: Global temperatures rising well above 4C by 2100 could occur if climate action collapses or if strong feedback loops such as the Amazon rainforest dying emit its enormous store of carbon. This would cause intense and enduring heat domes and water shortages affecting the UK in summer.
• Atlantic Current Collapse: A critical sea current, the AMOC, is weakening and becoming unstable due to ocean warming. A full shutdown commencing by 2030 would lead to a 6C cooling in the UK. "Agriculture would be severely challenged and water supplies would be drastically changed," noted the lead researcher.
• Rapid Sea Level Rise: A surge of 2.0-2.2 metres around the UK by 2100 could occur if glaciers in the polar regions collapse rapidly, inundating low-lying areas. Differing from the other scenarios, this possibility is already understood by planners.
• Clean Air Warming: Temperatures could also be increased by about 0.75C if airborne particulates is drastically reduced. This paradoxical outcome occurs because aerosol particles from industrial activity scatter solar radiation from warming the ground.

Preparing for the Extreme

These dire projections could be used to inform the building of critical national infrastructure, for example new towns, nuclear power stations and flood defences. Knowledge about these environmental threats could also accelerate the drive to slash carbon pollution.

The study created the severe projections using a combination of past data and records, digital projections and scientific theory. The possibilities omit broader worldwide issues such as the global food shortages and increased conflict.

This work was commissioned as part of a official adaptation planning initiative. Independent analyses have cautioned that too little consideration was being paid to low‐likelihood but high‐impact risks.

The government's climate advisors has recommended that the UK must "become resilient to moderate heating" and assess the risks for 4C. Past policy documents have been described as being "insufficient" by certain experts.

An official statement commented: "Climate change is at the center of this government’s agenda, both adapting for the future and transitioning to a clean energy superpower. It is vital that the UK is resilient for the effects."