Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the country and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Each writes two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses something to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
